Tony Blair's Legacy
How will the British Prime Minister be Remembered?
Tony Blair's time as British Prime Minister is coming to an end. He is putting in place his legacy, his place in history. For what and how will he be remembered?
Tony Blair was elected to the British premiership in 1997. His election brought to an end nearly two decades of Conservative Party government and was greeted with great enthusiasm by the majority of the British electorate, an enthusiam that was reflected in his party's huge majority. Today, after 10 years, he is about to leave office to hand over the reins of government to another member of his party, Gordon Brown and a new Deputy Leader, Harriet Harman. As he approaches the end of his time in office he is, as all long-serving political leaders do, seeking to define his own legacy - the way in which he will be remembered by history. It is an appropriate time to begin to think about what that legacy will be.
The political legacy
When Blair became party leader, he was fortunate to have followed two leaders who had taken on the hard left of the Labour Party, and in particular, the Militant Tendency and effectively removed from the organisation the element within it that made it un-electable. Those leaders, Neil Kinnock and John Smith had left the leadership of the party for different reasons, Kinnock as a result of failure in general elections and Smith through his untimely death at an early age. Blair and his closest colleagues took a party which was largely perceived as being unelectable and deeply untrusted by the business community and, through a process of re-naming (it became New Labour') and re-branding, achieved a massive electoral swing against Conservative Prime Minister John Major in 1997. The party retained power in 2001 and 2005, to win three consecutive general elections, a feat never before achieved by any Labour prime minister. In party political terms, Tony Blair will be remembered as being highly successful, although this part of his record will also be remembered as ending with a stain as a result of the ongoing police investigation into the alleged cash for peerages scandal.
The domestic policy legacy
At the time of its election, the New Labour government of Tony Blair faced a major challenge. How to make good the massive under-investment in public services left by two decades of Tory rule while, at the same time, keep its electoral pledge not to raise direct taxation and also keep the business community and feared Murdoch media on-side? This was a very difficult trick and Blar, aided by his 'Iron Chancellor' Gordon Brown, succeeded. Billions of pounds were pumped into revitalising the railway system, a system that was literally falling apart through under-investment. More billions were spent on all levels of education, particularly in the area of infrastructure which had been sadly neglected by the Conservatives. Many more billions were dedicated to modernising the National Health Service and, in particular, to addressing issues of pay. This was all done without any increase in direct taxation, although there were substantial increases in indirect taxation. In particular, it was done while maintaining the longest period of economic stability and year-on-year economic growth ever seen in the UK.
Another, often unsung, success of the Blair premiership has been Northern Ireland where a situation that has often been characterised as civil war has been normalised. Tony Blair has involved himself in this issue in a way that other Prime Ministers have tended not to. This involvement will in all probability be remembered as being decisive.
In this area, Blair will be remembered well.
The foreign policy legacy
Tony Blair's nemesis came in the form of the election in 2000 of George W Bush as US President. Prior to Bush, Blair had a good record in foreign policy. He had led Britain when it joined the fight against Serbian expansionsim in former Yugoslavia. His Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, had proclaimed an 'ethical foreign policy', and only the ease with which he had caved in to pressure from the right-wing press, and particularly Rupert Murdoch, over the issue of European monetary union sullied the record.
George Bush's desire to complete his father's unfinished work in Iraq (George Bush was President at the time of the first Iraq war, but failed to complete the task of removing Saddam Hussein) meant that the US was predisposed to fight a war to remove the Iraqi dictator. Once 9/11 occured, the die was cast.
Initially Afghanistan was invaded to remove the Taliban government which had happily hosted Al Quaeda training camps. That war was seen as legitimate, even by many on the left. The Taliban were no match for the western forces sent to remove them and their forces were, initally defeated, and then, as has been the case with many invasions of Afghanistan, melted away to regroup later and engage in guerilla wafare with the occupying force.
However, the real objective was to remove Hussein. Blair's big error was buying into this US neo-con project. His support for US policy in this area was opposed by many within the UK, including many in his own party who did not believe the claims concerning weapons of mass destruction that were being used to justify the increasingly belicose attitude to Iraq. Following the successful attack on Iraq and the removal of the Hussein, it became apparent fairly quickly that there were no weapons of mass destruction. The invasion had been undertaken on a false prospectus.
Worse was to follow. While the invading forces had been welcomed by some sections of the population, they were viewed as an occupying force by others. Attacks on the armed forces became a daily occurance. US casualties moved into the thousands and UK casualties into the hundreds. A situation akin to civil war developed as Sunni and Shia militias battled it out over territory and local socio-economic power, and the media was filled with pictures of carnage brought about by a seeingly unstoppable wave of suicide bombers. The promise of a war to introduce democracy to a previously undemocratic country seemed an imposible dream. The whole was also overlaid by continual reports of corruption.
Blair will not be remembered kindly in respect of foreign policy.
Blair and History
What to make of all this? Historians will find it difficult to make a single judgement about Tony Blair as Prime Minister. They will accept that he saved the Labour Party from a further long period in the electoral wilderness though his faustian pact with Rupert Murdoch and big business. They will applaud his part in the Northern Ireland peace process and will pay respect for the regeneration of the public services that he and Gordon Brown have achieved. They will, however, damn him for his inability to to forsee the consequences of engaging in a war fought for the wrong reasons and without a good outcome. They will see him as George Bush's lapdog.
Part of his failure will be put down to the way he seems overawed by celebrity. His premiership has been tainted throughout by his desire to be close to those currently in vogue or those with money. From the initial, much derided, attempt to bring the main players in 'Cool Britannia' into Number 10 Downing Street, through his much reported holidays at the homes of ageing entertainers like Cliff Richard and Barry Gibb, and his courtship of Bernie Ecclestone (the Formula One chiff) and Italian premier and media mogul Berlisconi, Blair has succumbed to the allure of the rich and famous. It is quite possible that history will view his relationship with George W Bush as another example of this pattern.
