Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand’s popular but controversial former Prime Minister, has sought refuge in Britain. Facing charges on corruption, abuse of power and tax evasion, Mr Thaksin failed to make a scheduled court appearance in Bangkok on August 11th and says he has no intention of returning to his home country.
Mr Thaksin was on bail after facing the first of an expected series of serious charges, but had the court’s permission to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympics. Together with his wife, who is also on bail after being found being found guilty of tax fraud, Mr Thaksin flew to London instead of returning to Bangkok.
Thaksin Shinawatra’s Rise
From a relatively modest background, Mr Thaksin accumulated an enormous private fortune in the 1980s, largely by winning some lucrative government contracts in the technology and communications industry as the Thai economy boomed. His wealth enabled him to build a formidable political party, Thai Rak Thai.
In the 2001 elections the party campaigned for cheap government loans and health care, policies that were hugely popular in the poorer rural areas. Thai Rak Thai won an overwhelming majority, giving Thaksin far more power than had been achieved by any previously elected Thai leader.
Charges Against Thaksin
While he delivered on most of his campaign promises and delighted his army of supporters in the countryside, some of Mr Thaksin’s methods caused alarm in other circles. Opponents make several claims against him.
• He used his political and financial power to buy controlling interests in the main news media, and is widely thought to have silenced his critics by threatening, harassing and firing them.
• He appears to have subverted the courts that looked into electoral abuses by him and his party.
• He made speeches that were widely interpreted as encouraging the police to murder suspected drugs dealers, resulting in an estimated 2,000 extra-judicial killings.
• His autocratic, uncompromising approach led to a worsening security crisis among Muslim separatists in four southern provinces.
• Thaksin and his family engaged in a number of questionable business deals, including the sale of his company at a huge profit without paying capital gains taxes.
• More subtly but in some ways most significantly, Mr Thaksin was seen as showing too little respect for the widely revered King and appeared to be on course to establish an unassailable political base that was independent of both the aristocratic establishment and its allies in the army.
Thailand’s Coup of 2006
Despite these criticisms Thai Rak Thai again triumphed in the 2005 elections, and with an increased parliamentary majority. It was too much for some, and an unlikely alliance of Bangkok’s educated, liberal elites, sections of the aristocracy and the army led to a coup against the Thaksin government in 2006, the establishment of a caretaker military government, the eventual disbandment of the Thai Rak Thai party and five-year bans on political activity by Mr Thaksin and other senior party members.
Mr Thaksin set up home in Britain where he owns property. In 2007 he bought Manchester City, an ambitious member of the Premier Football League. Human rights campaigners challenged the move and might do so again.
But the cracks in Thai society opened by Mr Thaksin’s rise to power remain. Elections arranged by the military government at the end of 2007 were won convincingly by the newly-created People’s Power Party which had openly campaigned as a proxy for Mr Thaksin. In February 2008 he was allowed to return to Bangkok with every expectation of a political resurrection, until the courts’ unlikely intervention.
UK-Thailand Extradition Treaty
While Mr Thaksin claims the charges are unfounded and politically motivated by “enemies of democracy,” Britain and Thailand have an extradition treaty and it is difficult to see what grounds the British government would have for rejecting a request to deport the former prime minister. But a trial and possible imprisonment in Bangkok would be hugely controversial with the risk of widespread unrest.
The Thais have a long tradition of allowing unwanted politicians a graceful exit; both governments might prefer that tradition to continue. And would the Football League take action based on unproven charges, however serious? Mr Thaksin is probably safe, but he will be a worried man for the next few months.
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