From Blair to Brown & Harman
Challenges for the New British PM and His Deputy Party Leader
Tony Blair has formally resigned as UK Prime Minister and Gordon Brown has succeeded him. What challenges do Gordon Brown and his new Deputy Harriet Harman face?
Tony Blair has been British Prime Minister for over a decade. This anniversary has seen him resign and, former-Chancellor Gordon Brown has succeeded him as prime minister. What are the key issues that face Gordon Brown, his successor as Prime Minister, and the newly elected Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, Harriet Harman?
The Issues Facing Brown and Harman
The most pressing issue facing Brown and Harman is the ongoing war in Iraq. Brown does not have the close relationship with Bush that Blair enjoyed, and as a result is less closely wedded to US policy. It will be interesting to see whether the new leader uses the opportunity of his election to signify a break with current policy by naming a date for British troop withdrawal, or whether we see a continuation of the old policy. Arguments that will be used to justify withdrawal will include the US Democrats’ attempts to legislate on a date for US withdrawal.
Domestically, Brown will face issues of territorial integrity in the UK. The indications are that Labour will do very badly in the local and regional elections being held on 3 May. The results in Scotland will be particularly crucial and, if the Scottish National Party should succeed in replacing Labour as the main party in Scotland (after four decades of overwhelming Labour dominance), then the pressure will be on Brown to come up with good economic and cultural reasons why the 300-year union between Scotland and the rest of the UK should be maintained. Should those arguments not be good enough, then Welsh (and possibly English) Nationalism would be given a boost and the United Kingdom will face a further challenge.
Brown has been a very successful Chancellor of the Exchequer and has held the post for longer than anyone since Gladstone in the 19th Century. The new PM will have to choose his successor to guide the country’s economy and this will not be easy. He needs to choose someone who is strong enough to fill the position, but he will not want someone as independent as he himself has been. Neither will he want to give a potential rival the opportunity to build a power-base from which to launch an assault on his leadership should things go badly for Labour. This will be a crucial appointment.
The Labour Party as a Challenge for Brown
In 1997, Tony Blair gave the Labour Party what it really wanted after 18 years in opposition – power. He delivered one massive and two significant majorities. Brown is unlikely to be able to do that. He faces a resurgent Conservative Party under a new leader (albeit a leader whose ideas have not yet been tested in an election – something that undid the Tory’s previous two leaders) and, while it is this writer’s opinion that he is likely to win the next election, his majority is likely to be smaller than any of Blair’s. Such a result is likely to see the left of party, which has felt particularly hard done to during the Blair years, begin to flex its muscles. This may be Brown’s greatest challenge, and the extent to which he manages to address the very different issues of Iraq, UK territorial integrity and the British economy is likely to decide the extent to which he can resist a resurgent Labour left-wing.
